WITH all the negativity
sweeping the global economy, Vietnam may turn out to be one of the world's few economic bright spots by year's end. Vietnam is shaping up to be the world's second fastest growing economy in 2001, not far behind China. Through the first three quarters of the year, Vietnam registered GDP growth of over 7%, at a time when most economies were contracting. These figures should hold up through the final quarter, perhaps even rising to 7.3%-7.4%, according to the General Statistics Office.
The GDP figures were announced shortly after the U.S. Senate voted to ratify the Bilateral Trade Agreement. Which leads one to think -- what's going to happen to Vietnam's GDP growth once the country's exporters have access to the world's largest market?
The current level of growth is surprising given that the prices of many of Vietnam's key commodities -- coffee, rubber, and pepper -- have been in the doldrums for much of the year. Industrial production and exports of rice, crude oil and seafood have made up the difference.
Some might dismiss the growth figures, saying that Vietnam's economy is starting from such a low base that it needs growth of 13-14% for it to be significant. Some might argue that having one of the world's fastest growing economies in a year of economic slowdown is not much of an accomplishment.
But at a time when investor confidence in Asia and the rest of the world is at a new low and the business community is reaching for any kind of solid ground, a country that enjoys social and political stability, robust economic growth, and the prospect of a new and prosperous economic relationship with the United States, likely won't go ignored.
It should not be ignored. It should be embraced.
Vietnam can point to another piece of credibility and a celebration of sorts. Three months ago, the government hosted an American economist who praised Vietnam for its integration into the world economy. In an interview with a local newspaper, the economist said he was "very positive about the outlook for Vietnam."
Shortly after returning home, the economist, Professor Joseph Stiglitz, won the Nobel Prize for Economics.
First published in MekongSources.com, the Internet arm of Mekong Research Ltd. and the first B2B trade platform for Indo-China, on October 15, 2001.